Reflections on Another Crucial Brexit Week

Despite all the political drama since writing my last blog on Brexit, we have no more certainty on what the final outcome will be. All the following remain possible:

• May’s deal
• No deal/WTO terms
• 'Norway Plus' or “Common Market 2.0”
• Labour’s alternative
• A Canada-style deal
• No Brexit

The REC’s work over the coming weeks and months will focus on helping members prepare for different Brexit scenarios.

Where are we politically and what will happen next?

A delay to Brexit is highly likely. If the EU rejects any extension to Article 50 at a summit next week, then the UK looks set to leave the EU on 29 March without a deal. But if an extension is granted, it’s still unclear for how long. MPs voted to extend the deadline to 30 June if the Prime Minister’s deal is passed next week, while noting that a longer extension would be necessary if it is rejected.

This longer extension is a clear threat to Conservative MPs in the European Research Group (ERG) – back the Prime Minister’s deal, or face a long delay and the possibility of no Brexit at all. The difficulty with a long extension is that this means the UK will have to participate in EU elections, an outcome no side wants. However, with parliament gridlocked it is unclear what a short extension would achieve.

Any extension of Article 50 does not deal with the fundamental question of how we exit. As Theresa May is fond of saying, the options for leaving the EU are still: her deal, no-deal, or no Brexit.

Given this, several political commentators think that her deal is still the most likely outcome as, despite two historic defeats, there are no other tenable alternatives.

But as this week demonstrates, major obstacles remain. Even if the government gets the DUP and ERG to back the deal, there are still Conservative MPs (both remainers and leavers) who will not support it in any circumstances.

The crucial question seems to be how large this group is compared to the number of Labour MPs who could back the deal. The government has taken measures to try and get these MPs on side, promising funding to Labour leave constituencies and to maintain workers’ rights post-Brexit. However, this week only one extra Labour MP voted with the government.

The government’s calculation, as it has been for several months, is that when faced with no-deal or indefinite extensions, MPs will back the deal. MPs have not faced that choice so far as it has been clear that there will be another vote in the future. Next week the third meaningful vote will take place, and there is already talk of a fourth after the EU summit. 

The government might be planning on repeatedly putting the same motion to parliament until it passes, but is that allowed? It is certainly possible that the Speaker would stop this. 

In the words of an unnamed government minister on what will happen next: “I’ve no idea. Find me someone who has and I'll find you a liar.”

What support is available to REC members?

Evaluating each of the different Brexit scenarios and how recruitment businesses can prepare for the outcomes is high on REC's agenda to support our members leading up to and post-Brexit.

The next Brexit webinar in the series will take place on 29 March from 1pm to 1:45pm. As well as reviewing political developments, we will be taking stock of latest regional and sectoral hiring trends and discussing practical steps that recruiters can take to manage the business through these uncertain times. To join, please register here.

As part of our wider Brexit support offering for members, we will also be holding a series of regional workshops specifically looking at preparing your business for different Brexit scenarios and working with clients to address strategic workforce challenges.