Report on Jobs: Upturn in hiring activity slows again amid candidate shortages

Key findings

• Permanent staff appointments rise at slowest rate for a year
• Labour supply falls rapidly, driving record rise in starting salaries
• Overall vacancy growth hits six-month high

Data collected March 11-25

Summary

The latest KPMG and REC, UK Report on Jobs survey highlighted softer rises in hiring activity during March, as candidate shortages restricted growth of both permanent placements and temp billings. Nonetheless, expansions remained sharp by historical standards, fuelled by a further steep increase in demand for staff. The availability of candidates to fill roles continued to fall sharply, however, with overall staff supply dropping at the quickest rate for four months.

The imbalance of labour supply and demand drove further substantial increases in rates of starting pay, with salaries for new permanent joiners rising at the quickest rate on record in March.

The report is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to a panel of around 400 UK recruitment and employment consultancies.

March sees further slowdown in hiring activity

Latest survey data pointed to softer expansions in both permanent staff appointments and temp billings across the UK in March. Though elevated by historical standards, rates of increase fell to 12- and 11-month lows, respectively. Recruiters frequently mentioned that candidate shortages continued to weigh on their ability to fill vacancies.

Steepest drop in total staff supply since last November

The overall availability of workers in the UK continued to fall rapidly at the end of the first quarter. Notably, the rate of contraction was the steepest seen for four months, with a slightly quicker drop in permanent candidate numbers offsetting a softer fall in temp labour supply. Panellists often mentioned that a generally low unemployment rate, uncertainty related to the pandemic and Ukraine war, fewer EU workers and robust demand for staff had limited worker availability.

Starting salary inflation hits new record

Recruitment consultancies signalled a further increase in permanent starting salaries in March. Moreover, the rate of inflation was the sharpest in 24-and-a-half years of data collection amid reports of intense competition for staff. Average wages for temp workers also rose in March, and at a rapid pace that was the quickest for three months.

Demand for staff increases at fastest rate for six months

Overall vacancies rose for the fourteenth month in September. Recruiters indicated stronger rises in both permanent and temporary staff demand in the latest survey period, with the former noting the steeper rate of growth.

Regional and Sector Variations

The Midlands registered the sharpest increase in permanent placements of all four monitored English regions. The softest, but still marked, expansion was seen in the South of England.

All four monitored English regions noted marked upturns in temp billings at the end of the first quarter, led by London.

Vacancies rose across both the private and public sector at the end of the first quarter. The strongest expansion in demand was signalled for permanent staff in the private sector, while the softest increase in vacancies was seen for permanent staff in the public sector.

As has been the case in each of the prior four months, IT & Computing recorded the steepest increase in demand for permanent staff of all ten monitored sectors in March. The softest, but still sharp, rise in permanent vacancies was seen in Retail.

March survey data also pointed to a broad-based increase in temporary staff demand, with Hotel & Catering topping the rankings. As was the case for permanent vacancies, the slowest increase in short-term roles was signalled for Retail.

Comments

Commenting on the latest survey results, Neil Carberry, Chief Executive of the REC, said:

“We can clearly see that labour and skills shortages are driving inflation in these latest figures. Starting salaries for permanent staff are growing at a new record pace, partially due to demand for staff accelerating and partially as firms increase pay for all staff in the face of rising prices. Record COVID infection levels are also pushing up demand for temporary workers, particularly in blue collar and hospitality sectors, underpinning the ability of temps to seek higher rates.

“However, the overall number of placements being made is starting to stabilise. This is no surprise after a period of historically high growth, and in the face of more economic uncertainty. Even so, the jobs market is very tight. Businesses will need to broaden their searches and be creative in making their offer to candidates more attractive, in consultation with recruitment experts. But government can help by incentivising investment in skills and people during the inflation crisis.”

Claire Warnes, Head of Education, Skills and Productivity at KPMG UK, said:

“There’s no end in sight to the deep-seated workforce challenges facing the UK economy. Once again this month, job vacancies are increasing while there are simply not enough candidates in all sectors to fill them. With fewer EU workers, the ongoing effects of the pandemic, the economic impacts of the war in Ukraine and cost of living pressures, many employers will continue to struggle to hire the talent and access the skills they need. With unemployment staying low, there are many great opportunities for job-seekers to join or rejoin the workforce in all sectors.”

Ends

Contact

For more information and interview enquiries, contact the REC Press Office on 020 7009 2192, 020 7009 2157 or pressoffice@rec.uk.com. Outside of regular office hours, please call 07702 568 829.

For further information on the survey methodology, or for full reports and historical data from the Report on Jobs, please contact economics@ihsmarkit.com.

If you are a recruitment business and interested in joining the Report on Jobs survey panel, you can sign up here. By joining the panel, you will get free access to the full Report on Jobs each month.

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