Labour Market Tracker: Job ads underscore hopes for labour market resilience - REC

• The number of active postings in March 2024 was 1,908,641 – up on the number in February 2024 – and suggesting a gentle rise in hiring activity since the winter. As a leading indicator for the labour market, this underscores more hopeful economic predictions for the summer.
• There were 848,004 new job postings in March 2024 – a 4.2% rise from the month before.
• Across the UK (United Kingdom), Na h-Eileanan Siar (25.5%), Causeway Coast and Glens (24.6%) and West Dunbartonshire (14.7%) had among the highest growth in job postings when compared to last month.
• Demand for workers in Scotland has rebounded.
• Posting levels overall remain below the levels of last year.

Despite falling activity across the winter, the job market is reacting to more positive signals on growth this spring, according to the latest Recruitment & Employment Confederation (REC) and Lightcast Labour Market Tracker.

There were more than 1.9m active job postings in the UK, with 848,004 new job postings in March 2024. While active job postings show a marginal growth of 1.1% compared to February, it is a further sign of steady growth in demand for labour, especially as the change was led by new postings, rather than older postings staying online.

REC Chief Executive Neil Carberry said:

“Over the past few weeks, we are starting to see some signs of firms gearing up for growth. The first indication of this in the labour market is this rise in job adverts. It will take time for this to feed through to higher placement levels, especially as recruiters report longer decision-making processes from hiring businesses right now. And we shouldn’t get carried away, as activity is still well below last year’s levels at this point, but further declines in labour market activity now seem less likely, especially as inflation and pay awards are normalising.”

Neil Carberry added:

“Businesses are looking for political parties to put growth at the heart of their programmes, and that means backing business. Manifestoes for the General Election need to focus on the long-term and address business concerns on skills, infrastructure and regulation if we are to make the most of the UK’s potential – and that starts with our workforce.  We could unlock £39bn of growth annually if government and business work together to get the people stuff right.”

Occupations with notable increases in adverts in March 2024 include Collector Salespersons and Credit Agents (40.0%) (who visit private households to obtain orders and collect payments for goods and services), Air Transport Operatives (26.2%) and Mining and Quarry Workers and Related Operatives (22.7%).

There was also growing demand for Tool Makers, Tool Fitters and Markers-out (22.0%), Road Transport Drivers n.e.c. (21.3%) and Mobile Machine Drivers and Operatives n.e.c. (19.3%).

Childminders (-25.4%), Quality Control and Planning Engineers (-35.3%) and Prison Service Officers (Below Principal Officer) (-37.3%) all showed the largest decline in roles from February 2024 to March 2024. This is the second consecutive month where job postings for Prison Service Officers have been in the bottom ten occupations.

Across the UK, Na h-Eileanan Siar (25.5%), Causeway Coast and Glens (24.6%) and West Dunbartonshire (14.7%) had among the highest growth in job postings when compared to February 2024.

Luton (-8.3%), Wakefield (-9.5%) and Barnsley, Doncaster and Rotherham (-10.2%) all accounted for the sharpest decline in job postings.

Scottish and Northern Irish counties dominate the top ten regions with the highest percentage of growth. Most of the top ten counties were based in Scotland and the remaining four were based in Northern Ireland. After a few months of sluggish growth, overall Scotland posted the highest growth of all government regions (7.0%).

Ends

Notes to editors:

1.     The Labour Market Tracker is produced by the REC in partnership with Lightcast, using their Job Postings Analytics data which is harvested from tens of thousands of job boards. Data was harvested in March 2024. For more details, see the attached annexes which, in league table format, detail the top and bottom ten county/unitary authorities for growth in job postings and growth by occupation type.

2.     ‘Active’ job postings are those which were live online during the specified time period. ‘New’ job postings are those which were added to the active stock during the specified time period.

3.     REC and Lightcast switched to analysing monthly data on a permanent basis in January 2024. They had trialled weekly and monthly data in parallel for the final months of 2023, and therefore confident that the data will offer the opportunity for clearer analysis.

The LMT (Labour Market Tracker) has also moved from analysing Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) 2010 to the revised SOC 2020. The main areas of change from the previous classification are:

a.     A review of the classification of roles as professional or associate professional
This means that occupations such as Paramedics, Multimedia Designers, Investment Analysts, and Taxation Experts, which were part of the “Associate Professional or Technical” classification in SOC 2010, have been reclassified as “Professional” occupations in SOC 2020.

b.     The reclassification of occupations associated with information technologies
This means that the growth in IT roles over the last decade or so has now been recognised by the creation of new unit groups such as Cyber Security, Quality and Testing, Networks, Web Design, Database Administrators, and IT Trainers.

c.     Disaggregation into less heterogenous unit groups
This includes the creation of a separate role for Logistics Management; distinguishing General Medical Practitioners from Specialist Medical Practitioners; a breakdown of nursing roles; and more detail on storage and warehouse roles.

d.     Overall, the new SOC 2020 classification system is more granular, with 43 more occupations at the 4-digit level than the 2010 version. This means that the REC can provide better and more up-to-date information, based on both the 43 the new classifications and the reviewed classifications.

4. The 'Nursery Education Teaching Professionals" (SOC 2315) will likely be getting a lower number of job postings as it is a new addition with SOC2020, previously it was Primary and Nursery Education Teaching Professionals, so it's separated out into Primary and Nursery.

5. In REC’s Overcoming Shortages report, we show exactly how much damage could be done if we don’t step up. With a 10% surge in demand for staff across the economy, and the labour market restricted by shortages, we could see a 1.2% fall in expected GDP and productivity by 2027 – costing the economy anywhere between £30 billion and £39 billion every year. This figure is just short of the entire current defence budget, or two whole Elizabeth Lines.

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About the REC

The REC is the voice of the recruitment industry, speaking up for great recruiters. We drive standards and empower recruitment businesses to build better futures for great candidates and themselves. We are champions of an industry which is fundamental to the strength of the UK economy.

Find out more about the Recruitment & Employment Confederation at www.rec.uk.com.

About Lightcast

Lightcast (formerly Emsi Burning Glass) provides trusted global labour market data, analytics, and expert guidance that empowers communities, corporations, and learning providers to make informed decisions and navigate the increasingly complex world of work. With a database of more than one billion job postings and career profiles, our team provides best-in-class customer service with robust data, clear analysis, and expert guidance on skills, jobs, and opportunities.

Headquartered in Boston, Massachusetts, and Moscow, Idaho, Lightcast is active in more than 30 countries and has offices in the United Kingdom, Italy, New Zealand, and India. The company is backed by global private equity leader KKR. For more, visit www.lightcast.io/uk.

ANNEXES

Top ten and bottom ten county/unitary authorities for growth in job postings:

Top ten and bottom ten occupations by growth in job postings:

Key indicator occupations